The Nerd Collective is a collaboration between Ryan Atkinson, president and co-owner of Workstand; Matt Tucker, director of client development at Circana; Peter Woolery, managing member of Bicycle Market Research; and Liam Donoghue, bicycle industry senior research manager at PeopleForBikes, who meet each month to develop data-backed insights on the bike industry’s most pressing issues.

Kids’ bikes don’t represent a particularly large percentage of dollar sales through the independent bicycle dealer (IBD) channel, leading to a generally smaller industry focus on its performance compared to other bike categories. However, the kids’ bike category is still an important metric for the growth of our industry. 

Kids’ bikes represent more than half of bicycle unit sales as measured by Circana, accounting for 57% of bike units sold across the total measured market in 2023*. It is important to note that the lion’s share of unit sales flow through the rest of market (ROM) channel (e.g., big box stores, sporting goods stores, etc.). For every kids’ bike sold at IBDs in 2023, the ROM channel sold 20.* 

Kids' bike sales are also an important barometer for the future of the market. As we know from PeopleForBikes’ COVID Participation Study, those who ride bikes as children are more likely to ride as adults than those who don’t. In this installment of our market trends series, the Nerd Collective looks at whether the sales patterns for kids' bikes differ from those of adult bikes. (spoiler alert — they do!)

Looking at the seasonal trend for unit sales of adult bikes (all bicycles excluding kids') in 2022 and 2023, it is clear that June and December are the strongest months, accounting for 14% and 12% of annual unit sales respectively. Further, 42% of adult bicycles are sold between March and June. 

For kids’ bikes, December is by far the strongest month, accounting for 25% of annual unit sales in 2022 and 2023. Also, the peak season for adult bikes (March through June) only accounts for 35% of annual unit sales for kids’ bikes.

The holiday spike in kids' bike sales is primarily driven by the ROM channel, where December accounts for 26% of annual unit sales in 2022-2023 compared to only 14% in the IBD channel. In December 2023, 40% of all kids’ bike units were sold online, an 8% over the first 11 months of the year.*

While the vast majority of those online sales happened at ROM stores, the holiday sales pattern is also strong for IBD e-commerce with December accounting for 20% of annual kids’ bike unit sales in 2023 and 21.5% in 2022.** In both years, roughly 3% of IBD kid’s bike sales in December took place online. This data suggests that there is opportunity for IBDs to boost sales of kid’s bikes during the holidays, particularly through leveraging online, e-commerce purchasing options. 

Conversely, the pattern of kids’ bike sales looks very different in the used marketplace, where there is no holiday sales peak.*** One interpretation of this observation is that potential sellers hold on to used bikes for their children to ride until they receive a new one as a holiday gift. Alternatively, it may be that the price gap between new and used kids’ bikes is particularly small during the holidays because of promotions and/or because potential sellers want to give their kids a new bike instead of a used bike during the holidays. 

It is worth noting that the used market is particularly strong for kids’ bikes, where the barriers to purchasing used and online are likely much lower than for other bike categories. In fact, kids’ bikes have the second lowest stock-to-sales ratio (behind e-bikes) with the average selling price (ASP) being very close to that observed in the ROM channel. It may be that the used market is so robust for kids’ bikes because sellers aren’t concerned about recouping costs and/or because kids move through bike sizes quickly. If the latter is true, the used market represents an opportunity to keep kids riding throughout their childhoods with a larger availability of affordable options.  

Comparing the U.S. and European Markets

The U.S. is a uniquely strong market for kids’ bikes. Based on a CONEBI report of the European market, kids’ bikes accounted for about 20% of bikes sold in 2020. In the U.S., kids’ bikes accounted for about 57% of bikes sold across the total market measured by Circana in 2023.*

Why is there such a large difference between the U.S. and Europe, especially when taking Europe’s larger population into account? Some of the reason owes to how easily and inexpensively a U.S. shopper can buy a bike for their child, either online or while they’re doing the rest of their department store shopping. While the sentiment is certainly changing in large parts of the U.S., kids’ bikes are still often viewed as toys rather than a transportation option to get the family from home to school or other destinations.

We also know that not as many American children continue to ride as adults compared to their European peers. Based on PeopleForBikes’ 2022 Bicycling Participation Study, more than half of kids 14 or younger rode a bicycle at least once in the previous year. That participation rate drops to 42% at ages 15-17 and continues to decline throughout adulthood, down to just 18% among those ages 55+.  This points to a big opportunity to grow ridership  in the U.S. by not only getting more kids on bikes but keeping them riding through adulthood.

While youth-focused organizations like NICA, Little Bellas, Outride, and Safe Routes to School play a critical role in getting and keeping kids on bikes, the data suggests that the biggest drop in participation happens right around driving age. Given that, technological innovations like e-bikes may offer a new opportunity to engage teenagers. 

Those 8.2 million kids who get a new bike each year will be the next generation of riders propping up our industry in the next decade, so it’s imperative to keep as many of them riding as we can.

Have a question for the Nerd Collective to answer in a future blog? Submit it here.

*Based on Circana/Retail Tracking Services, US Cycling POS Monthly

** Based on Workstand IBD eCommerce sales data

***Based on Bicycle Market Research data on peer-to-peer used marketplaces (eBay, Craigslist, Facebook Marketplace, Mercari)